Posted 9th Dec 2019

BMF predicts slowdown in sales growth

9th December 2019 - 08:00am
construction, BMF

For the second quarter in a row, the latest Builders Merchants Federation (BMF) Industry Forecast of merchant sales show a drop in expected growth for 2019 over 2018.

According to the BMF's newly-released Q3 2019 report, the slump is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2020.

The Builders Merchants Industry Forecast is a comprehensive analysis of builders' merchant market performance from July 2014 to September 2019, coupled with an analysis of the key factors affecting builders’ merchants’ sales to project future sales from October 2019 to December 2021. The BMF forecast is based on previous trends found within the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) data, and does not account for external factors, such as the uncertainty caused by continuing Brexit delays or weather events that hinder construction activity.

Despite two successive quarters of negative growth, overall 2019 is forecast to see a marginal increase in average year-on-year sales growth of 1.9%. However, this figure has been revised down from the previous forecast of 3.0%.

Year-on-year sales growth for Q1 2020 has also been revised down to 5.7%, from the previous forecast of 6.5%. However, looking further forward, the forecast for overall average year-on-year growth in 2020 has improved to 4.6%, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 4.3%.

A PDF edition of the Q3 Forecast can be purchased for £195+VAT. To purchase a copy, contact Nyssa Patel, BMF Industry Analyst/Economist on 02476 854994 or email nyssa.patel@bmf.org.uk. BMF members can log into their accounts to read the full report.


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